We develop hybrid system dynamics econometric models, linked to complex networks and machine learning technology to assess complex risks of the real world.
We apply disruptive exogenous shocks to systems, and trace propagations and feedback loops within the trade networks of our models.
We believe in sustainability analysis. We comply with TCFD standard assessing both transition and physical risks emerging from climate change.
We are specialists in the modelling of global risks. Some of our models:
The Climate-Economy is a multi-country network global economic model used for the impact assessment and stress-testing of uncertain scenarios such as trade shocks, climate disruptions, resource policy shocks, and feedback effect on financial and economic systems. The model is calibrated on a variety of public available data.
The Covid-19 tracker model was created to address the uncertainties of economic pandemic. The model is an epidemiology dynamic model, embedding the feedback effects of policy making to determine the threshold between economic performance and pandemic diffusion. The model calibrates on data all countries of the world using machine learning technology.
Disruptive Supply Chain Risk model
The model applies network science, and machine learning technology in combination to our production and trade system model. Currently under development, it has the potential to give granular analysis based on client data.
We collected a global dataset of 200 variables from different data sources providing information about all countries, and used to calibrate and compare our models with history. This include OECD, World Bank, IEA, FAO and others.
Geopolitical & Supply Chain Failures and Impacts
Climate Change Impacts
Cyber Crime Impacts
Exoshock is really delighted to confirm the involvement of Roberto Pasqualino, one of our scientific founders, at the COP 26 event, demonstrating our Climate Change credentials and our contribution to the challenge of containing Climate impacts on humanity for our future generations.
The Carbis Bay G7 Summit was held in Carbis Bay, Cornwall from 11-13th June 2021. Exoshock was proud to be involved and to look at some of the key agenda points relating to Climate Change.
Our analysis complies with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures
We comply to the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) standard for simulation modelling and scenario analysis, in terms of model transparency and assessment of both physical and transition risks from climate change.
Short-Term: Physical Risks
Physical risks are shocks from climate change such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, that can impact food production, and security, damage our cities, and heavily influence insurance businesses and economic performance.
Long-Term: Transition Risks
We model energy markets and climate change. This allows to assess the potential hypothesis of carbon taxes, and government interventions in global market and assess the potential of stranded assets in various countries.
The real impact of Brexit changes in trade for the UK Economy
We at Exoshock have been asked to look closely at the range of outcomes for UK Ltd with regards to post-Brexit and the consequences of reduced or enhanced trade over[…]Read more
Helicopter Money – Timing for maximizing economic recovery from the covid-19 supply chains and demand disruption
Exoshock’s global macroeconomic models are able to address various aspects of Covid-19 pandemic effects on the global, regional economies, marketplaces, and supply chains. Earlier we have looked at the commodity[…]Read more
Western world consumer demand reduction & the rise of Food Real Price Index and Food Poverty
Exoshock Insights on the Global Economy Exoshock is using its models again to monitor Covid-19 effects on the global and regional economies Among the major concerns for the impact of[…]Read more
We rely on Ventana Systems Inc. Ventity Software
We believe in the use of data and machine learning to support better understanding of systems
Unique platform allowing to apply system thinking and modelling together with novel technology and AI.
Supports the use of Machine Learning and AI to calibrate models automatically once developed.
Supports more effective use of data and integration of different data sources in the same platform.
Supports scalability of systems and extends the use of System Dynamics with Agent-Based Modelling and large scale Network analysis.
Dr Andrei Elan
Dr. Roberto Pasqualino
Exoshock was created from the research of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University